Category: Economy

  • Capitalism’s grim calculation

    Capitalism’s grim calculation

    When the Covid-19 lockdown was announced, was I the only person to think how crazy is capitalism?

    So everything shuts down – or nearly everything. Essential work continues – food production, transportation, etc. In a planned economy there would not even be a hiccough. There are 30 million people who work in the UK. If 25 million have to stay at home to prevent the spread of Covid-19, that is not a problem. Sure, the economy will be producing less goods and services than previously, but there will still be food to eat.

    Only an economic system that not subject to conscious control would it be a problem to make the rational decision to stop 25 million people working for a few months.

    But in an economy that depends on profit, credit and unrelenting growth to even stand still, it creates huge problems.

    You get a glimpse of how the capitalist class are weighing up their Covid-19 options by reading their publications. The Economist is one publication which has been weighing up the grim options open to them.

    This week’s edition has a long article discussing the approach needed for capitalism to survive the Covid-19 crisis. It opens with several paragraphs about politically uncontroversial issues – triage and the difficult medical decisions required of doctors with limited resources. Choosing the best containment/suppression strategy in different countries and different cultures. But after the preamble the article drops the deadly question: ‘as the disruptive effects of social-distancing measures and lockdowns mount there will be hard choices to make, and they will need to be justified economically as well as in terms of public health’.

    In the words of the Economist: ‘Attempts to argue that the costs of such action could be far greater than the cost of letting the disease run its course have, on the other hand, failed to gain much traction.’ At the beginning of a pandemic this is is not a bad thing, The Economist tells us. The economic disruption caused by lockdowns, social distancing and business closures would likely had happened anyway if no action had been taken and the disease had been left to run its course.

    But as the loss of profits continues beyond a month or so the ruling class has to make a ‘grim calculus’ they tell us. Loss of business versus loss of life.

    Grim indeed. And there is little doubt which fork of the road they will take when they feel they can manage the political fallout.

  • The ruling class is right

    Brune Le Maire

    It is worth listening to what the ruling class is saying. Because often they display a greater level of class-consciousness than we do when analysing the economic and political crisis.

    Take Bruno Le Maire for example. Mr Le Maire is the Economy and Finance Minister in Macon’s government in France. He appeared recently in an interview with Stephen Sackur on Hard Talk (BBC News Channel). His response to Sackur’s questions about the political turbulence in France was telling. Here is the quote (his English is good but there are some expressions he would have changed had he been speaking in his native tongue).

    “We are all facing the same crisis, which is a social crisis, an economic crisis and also a political crisis. You have a large amount of people in the UK, in France, but also in Germany, in Spain and in Italy which are suffering from the globalisation; which had deeply the impression of being neglected, of being left out. We have to listen to those people.”

    What Le Maire recognises here is that the break-up of the political status quo is driven not by political mistakes on the part of the ruling parties, but more profoundly by economic factors.

    Personally I have trouble grasping what they mean by globalisation. It is a vague term. But what is clear is that the economies of most of the advanced capitalist countries are experiencing major problems. And the greatest one is that they have had to reduce the living standards of millions of people in an attempt to deal with the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In the UK the government approach has been termed ‘austerity’. Austerity is just a propaganda term to describe a series of attacks on the wages, living standards and social conditions of the working class. They like to call it austerity because it has a ring of religious abstinence. But economic austerity is not a choice we made. It is a policy of cuts and more cuts.

    They like to pretend that austerity is over. Or it is about to be over. But only the other day they announced cuts to pensioner tax credit which would take effect in May 2019. Up to that date, pensioner couples on low income were eligible for a credit that amounted to about £100 per week. But from May if either of them is under pension age then no tax credit is available. So a 70 year old man with a 62 year old wife is not eligible. To soften the blow they are allowing couples who were in receipt of the credit before May to continue receiving it. But approximately 10,000 of the poorest pensioner couples who would have received this assistance will have it witheld.

    That is just one small example of how the attacks on living standards are continuing. Public sector workers still have their pay rises held to below inflation. For many workers this has been a 2% cut in wages every year for the last 9 years.

    Cuts to local government funding continue apace, with most councils having their funding cut by 60-70% since 2010. This has meant reductions in many of the services provided by local authorities.

    According to Mr Le Maire many people have “the impression” of being neglected. It is not an impression. It is a fact of life for many of us. And it is the fundamental driving force behind the disgruntlement, anger and frustration that workers feel.

    The media would like to tell us workers are angry because they feel the political class ignores them. They will tell you the anger is because we feel immigrants are making the country worse. But the real reason, the reason even Mr Le Maire acknowledges, is the economic impoverishment we are experiencing.

    It is no use the ruling class telling us they are going to listen. It is deeds that count, not words. Listen all you like, but if the economic system over which you preside cannot provide a better standard of living for most of the population you have a big problem. And that problem is that capitalism is bankrupt. It has no future, and has only survived this long by creating massive amounts of made-up money in the form of quantitative easing.

    The future of the working class does not lie in following the well-travelled political paths we have been pushed down by the ruling class. Our future involves taking ownership of the wealth we create, and taking political control by rejecting the false democracy of corrupt parliamentarianism in favour of a direct workers’ democracy.

    That involves a social revolution, and the signs are out there that its time is coming.

    Time to get ready for the big change.

  • An economist explains

    You could read a whole article by a highly-regarded economist and come away convinced he is a simpleton. Stephen King of HSBC is no exception.

    He wrote a comment piece in the Evening Standard asking whether the Bank of England understood what was going on. Fair question. We know they don’t. But then Stephen, HSBC’s’ senior economic advisor’ and author of ‘Grave New World’ proceeds to demonstrate his own powers of explanation. And it is not impressive.

    The questions he was trying to answer were:

    1. if employment is so strong, why is growth so weak, and

    2. if unemployment is so low, why are wages so depressed?

    And his answer is Brexit.

    He points out that growth in the UK was consistently higher than in the EU until the European referendum. But 15 months after the vote UK growth has slowed and EU growth has accelerated. This correlation he assumes can be taken as a causal explanation. No evidence needed – just point to a coincidence of two events, and explain one by the other. A fatuous assumption for someone claiming to be a serious economist. You could just as well conclude that the consistent growth in UK GDP was the reason for the Leave vote. After all, the Leave vote came after the growth, so the former must have caused the latter.

    When he addresses the two questions he put to himself (strong employment yet low wages, and low unemployment yet depressed wages) his explanation is even more fatuous. ‘This year the eurozone has lost its mojo,’ he tells us. Hold on a second. Is this the same eurozone area he just told us was growing so vigorously that the UK could not keep up? And yet within the space of a paragraph it has lost its mojo. [Mojo, here, is used in its precise economic sense of … oh dear, it doesn’t have an economic sense!)

    As he jumps around from one superficial observation to another he lands on another explanation straight out of the Children’s Guide to Economics. ‘…it may be that unemployment is so low precisely because wages keep falling.’

    Brilliant. This ‘senior economic advisor’ to HSBC should submit this theory to a peer-reviewed journal. It meets the criteria expected in journals of bourgeois economics. If you cannot explain A by B, switch the sentence around and make B the cause of A.

    To bourgeois economists the law of supply and demand is the explainer of most economic phenomena. They do not look past the surface appearances of reality to try and understand WHY supply increases/decreases or why demand increases/decreases. If they did, they might find something resembling a causal relationship. At least they would be trying to find a reasonable explanation. But economics remains at the level of a child staring at a rainbow and seeing that is somehow associated with rain and sun occurring together. No need to delve into the realms of light refraction. That would be scientific. And if there is one thing that bourgeois economists run from, it is any attempt at non-superficial explanation.

    So here we have a ‘senior economic advisor’ informing us that, if full employment does not cause wage growth, then low wages cause full employment.

    Brilliant!

  • US declares trade war at Davos

    The US has gone to Davos to tell the rest of the world it is declaring a trade war.

    The US Commerce Secretary declared, ‘Trade wars are fought every single day. Every single day there are always parties violating the rules and trying to take unfair advantage of things. So a trade war has been in place for quite a little while. The difference is US troops are now coming to the ramparts.’

    The US has decided to go on the offensive after its attempt to scupper the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) were undermined by its own allies and trading partners. Japan, Australia and Canada were party to the decision to reinstate the TPP but without the USA as a partner.

    Another US representative, Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, helped boost US competitiveness by downplaying the significance of a recent drop in the value of the dollar. As a result the dollar dropped even further, presumably because traders interpreted his attitude as indicating the administration were comfortable with a lower valuation to assist them in trading overseas.

    The US onslaught comes at a time when their allies are increasingly frustrated at American attempts to block new appointments to the WTO (World Trade Organisation) court, weakening the ability of the institution to adjudicate on international trade disputes.

    The WTO has been in existence since 1995 when it replaced the GATT (General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade). They represent an attempt in the post-war era to minimise the disruption caused to international capitalism by trade disputes. The US decision to put pressure on it, and to declare trade war on its allies, is a measure of how much trouble the world economy is at the moment. The US administration is preparing to go to war, and the last thing it needs is a court prepared to rule that it is taking advantage of weaker countries.

    As the economic crisis develops, US capitalism is positioning itself to try and destroy its major trading competitors. The breakdown of post-war international agreements is only part of the general instability in international capitalism. The contradictions created by the creation of hundreds of billions of new dollars/GB pounds/ Euros by central banks following the banking crisis is coming to a head.

    For the working class the issue we face is how to prepare for the shocks that are coming. There is only so much the ruling class can expect the workers to sacrifice before they reach an impasse. At it feels like that impasse is fast approaching.

    For us the issue is to develop a working class leadership that recognises the size of the task ahead, and is prepared to take the necessary steps to end the chaos of capitalist economics. We do not need Labour’s social democrats with their plans to tweak capitalism to make the crumbling system fairer. That sort of blind alley plays into the hands of a ruling class who want workers to believe there is no alternative to capitalist chaos.

  • Bank of England supports Brexit

    The BoE (Bank of England) decision to increase interest rates to 0.5% was a vote of confidence in Brexit. That was what the headlines should have been in the capitalist press.

    When the rate was reduced in August 2016 we were told it was because of the vote to leave the European Union. The decision to leave would have calamitous consequences for the UK economy. Armageddon had been predicted, the sky was about to fall in on us. The BoE had to take steps to protect us. So the interest rate was reduced from 0.5% to 0.25%.

    The world carried on. The sky stayed in the sky. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were NOT sighted.

    Mark Carney, the governor of the BoE, might argue that his minuscule change in interest rates was what saved us from collapse. Even if we give him credit for controlling a tsunami of destruction with a minimal interest rate change, he would have to admit that his dire predictions for the referendum result were not borne out by the facts.

    So yesterday the BoE decided to return to the rate of interest that had existed before the referendum.

    All the media who swallowed the hype about the effect of a Leave vote, and who have attributed every bit if negative news to “Brexit” would surely now concede that this reversal in BoE policy was a recognition that the rate drop fifteen months ago was no longer needed. And that must mean the economy was getting better. Or, at the very least, it was not getting worse.

    But no. The interest rate increase has been reported as if it were a drastic measure needed to deal with another catastrophe. Inflation is too high. Unemployment is too full. Whatever rationalisation they give us, they are adamant that leaving the EU is a bad thing.

    Meanwhile the British working class look at the reporting and see, yet again, the press have their own agenda. They are not reporting facts. They are not describing events. They are interpreting them, with all the pro-capitalist, pro-establishment bias we have come to expect of them.

  • The Labour Party’s radical reformists

    The true nature of the socilaism espoused by Jeremy Corbyn and his Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, were revealed at the Labour Party conference today.

    Despite all the left rhetoric, McDonnell made a speech on economic policy which made it clear they plan to run capitalism for the capitalist class. In his own words, McDonnell wants to be an “interventionist” government. That is to say he thinks the role of a Labour government is to intervene in the so-called free market in order to make it run more smoothly. His vision of the future is based on the rosy prospect of an ever-improving world capitalist system. He hopes he can protect and improve the lives of ordinary working people by running that economy more efficiently than the neo-liberals who have been at the helm recently.

    Unfortunately for McDonnell, the prospects for “happy capitalism” are dire. On the same day the capitalist press were reporting on his speech and the less-than-hostile response of the CBI and other business and finance representatives, two other majior stories were appearing in the financial pages.

    First, there has been a substantial decline in the share value of Deutsche Bank. Share values are less than 50% of their market price a year ago, and have not been this low for over twenty years. They were not even this low following the financial crisis of 2008. And the reason for the decline is that the bank is seen as at risk of failure, as it has recently failed banking ‘stress tests’ in Europe and the USA. This position was exacerbated by a recent record fine imposed by US regulators. But at the heart of the crisis is a belief that this bank might fail, and that the German government will not come to its rescue.

    Deutsche Bank is far from the only bank at risk, it is just the one that the financial press focus on this week. Many others are in a similar position. For all the talk of banking reform, the financial sector is balanced precariously on a knife edge.

    The second big financial story hints at what might tip the tottering banks over the edge.

    Ken Rogoff used to be the chief economist at the IMF. Now at Harvard, he warns that the Chinese economy could be headed for a ‘hard landing’. It is estimated that the Chinese economy may have up to $25 trillion in debt. This has in part been due to huge borrowing to fund construction projects intended to boost growth in the economy. But the Bank of International Setlements (BIS) estimates that China now has 30 times as much debt as its total annual GDP. The BIS considers a government with a ratio of debt to GDP which is greater than 10:1 to be in trouble.

    To quote the editorial in today’s City AM newspaper:

    “So the spectre of a Great Chinese Crash hovers over the global economy. If the debt bubble bursts the UK will not be immune. British banks have $530 billion worth of lending and business in China, including Hong Kong.”

    So, Mr McDonnell, what steps are you taking to prepare for the looming crisis? Taking over infrastructure such as railways and other de-nationalised industries will not be enough. When Capital has got itself into this intractable crisis, the role of socialists is not to try and fix it for their capitalist masters. The role of socialists must be to help the working class take control of the essential industries that the capitalist financial crisis threatens, and to put the production of essential goods and services under workers’ control.

    Too radical for you, John? Of course it is. The time for left talking is over. We need to prepare to take real power. That will require a genuine workers’ party, committed 100% to the end of capitalism and the establishment of a socialist economy.

  • Brexit lies – who told the truth?

    The referendum campaign was cheapened and degraded by accusations of lies. And the most vociferous accusers were the Remain campaign.

    We were repeatedly told the Leave campaign were telling lies. The Remain campaign, on the other hand, had so-called experts on their sides. International colleagues with their own vested interests to protect waded in with advice for the ignorant British working class, who were too stupid to understand the issues. The IMF, the ECB and IFS were all quoted as expert opinion.

    One of the arguments the remain campaign promulgated is now coming home to roost. They told us that the UK would not be able to negotiate good terms for the “financial passporting” arrangements. These, we were told, were essential for the UK’s financial sector.

    Today we read that 13,484 firms use financial passporting arrangements to transact business between the UK and the rest of the EU. But only 5,476 British firms are using passporting to sell into the EU. Far more firms, 8,008 to be precise, are using the device to sell financial products into the UK.

    Well, Mr Osborne, Mr Cameron and the rest of the Remain campaign, you kept that very quiet, didn’t you? So there may in fact be more for the European financial services providers at stake than there is for the City of London.

     

  • The trouble with Marxism …

    Karl Marx
    Karl Marx

    The trouble with Marxism is that most of the people use that expression have not got a clue what he was about.

    And I am not referring the common man or woman in the street who has misconceptions. No, the people who really misunderstand him (or misrepresent him, which is worse) are the educated class. People who should know better, but park their critical faculties when it comes to Marx, because “everybody knows” he got it all wrong.

    The Economist magazine recently reviewed “Karl Marx: Greatness and Illusion” by Gareth Stedman Jones. The reviewer, who is not named in the article, makes statements so stunningly ignorant you would have to wonder if they actually worked for The Economist. Perhaps they just sent in a review on spec, written while sitting in their bedroom, between reading chapters of ‘Marx for Idiots’.

    The erudite reviewer wrote:

    “In one passage Marx set out to answer a puzzle. Changing levels of supply and demand explain why the price of a commodity goes up and down, but does not explain what the equilibrium price of that commodity is what it is.”

    In one patronising clause, our erudite reviewer reveals he has never even tried to read Capital. Does this reviewer really think that, in the three volumes of Capital, Marx only set out to answer the question of what determines price in one single passage? One of the central questions for Adam Smith and David Ricardo was dealt with by Marx “in one passage”?!

    Leaving that to one side, the reviewer then summarises Marx’s solution to the puzzle – the labour theory of value. The reviewer quotes Stedman Jones saying Marx “arbitrarily ruled out the relative desirability or utility of commodities” which, according to the reviewer, would strike most people as the obvious explanation.

    So where Marx was trying to work out the intricacies of the most complex and non-intuitive economic system in human history, our reviewer is satisfied with an explanation that “would strike most people as … obvious”.

    Dear reviewer, I for one am a person to whom the obvious explanation does not appear obvious at all. If we believe you, price is determined not by supply and demand, but by “the relative desirability or utility” of a commodity. Or perhaps by both. But not ultimately by the amount of socially necessary labour needed for its production.

    So let us compare a strawberry and a motor car. Why does a strawberry cost less than a car? Because the car has more desirability or utility? What does that even mean? A strawberry tastes better than a car, so the strawberry should be more expensive because it has more taste utility. But a car drives faster than a strawberry, so the car should cost more because it has more speed utility. Really? You think that is obvious?

    Or compare the car with something less edible; say an aircraft carrier. The car costs less than the aircraft carrier because the car has less desirability or utility.

    So how do we know how desirable an aircraft carrier is, compared to a car? How do we compare the utility or desirability of commodities which are qualitatively different? Compare a ballpoint pen with a bunch of flowers. Or a blockbuster movie with a rucksack.

    My advice to this reviewer is simple and almost as patronising as their review. Pick up a copy of Capital, and read Chapter One. Just Chapter One. The rest will probably be too complex for you. Just read chapter one.

    Learn what he difference is between use value and exchange value. And if you grasp that basic concept, then tell me how the hell do you imagine it would EVER be possible to make a direct comparison between different use values (or “utility” as you like to say)?

  • Leave the free market alone

    Capitalism is a wonderful thing. Provided you make sure the capitalists do not form a monopoly, and keep say five or six major players in the market, the consumer gets what they want
    If working people ae not happy with the product or service they are getting, one of the other capitalists will fill in the gap, and soon they will take a substantial market share. So it is obviously unnecessary for the EU bureaucrats to step in and legislate about how much mobile phone companies can charge us.
    Roaming charges were reduced, by order of the EU, and next year they will be abolished altogether. This is a crazy step for the EU to be taking. For most of us consumers, we were happy to pay roaming charges when we went abroad. We wanted to be charged 30p or 40p a minute to phone our home country and speak to friends and family.
    It was obvious that travellers did not want cheap roaming data charges. Otherwise why would they have switched off data roaming on their handsets every time they went abroad? Naturally there were a few (there are always a few) who were different from the crowd. They looked forward to returning home and checking how many hundreds of pounds they had been charged for using data abroad and not confining themselves to internet cafes and the hotel lobby.
    Now, against our will, and kicking and screaming, we are being forced by an undemocratic bunch of unelected faceless nobodies to pay the same in Sweden as we do in the UK.
    How dare they!
    That is not how the market works. And we know the market works because that is what every politician, broadcaster and economist apologist for capitalism tells us.
    And they are the experts.
  • Vicky Pryce lectures us on economics

    vicky-pryceVicky Pryce has written an article for The Evening Standard setting out what she thinks will decide the forthcoming election. She is an economist. And she argues that “It’s still the economy, stupid”.

     

    She makes a good point in her opening paragraph: “in reality voters are not stupid. What matters to them is the economy and jobs.” But in the very next sentence she lets you know that she is the economist who is clever enough to explain capitalist economics to us uneducated masses. She says; “Yet the information they are given on which to base their decisions is often biased, wrong, or wilfully distorts the truth. It is important that voters have the proper economic evidence: this is where the real battles will be fought.”

    So here comes Vicky Pryce bringing “proper economic evidence” to the masses.

    The problem I have with academic economists is that they purport to have “theories” which are based on some kind of scientific principles. But in fact their so-called science is nothing more than a description of what is in front of their eyes. No analysis. No attempt to go beyond superficial appearances and understand the reasons for the changes in world capitalism; growth, shrinkage, stagnation or even collapse. If they had anticipated the economic crash in 2008-2009, or had told us at the start of the recession that austerity measures would be counter-productive, they might have  a little credibility. But most of them simply run with the crowd.

     

    Where was Vicky Pryce’s when her husband was a Liberal minister in the coalition government, and joined the Tories in enthusiastically cutting the wages and social support for working people? She would have been a more credible economic commentator if she had rushed to the printing presses to attack a theory that she is now convinced is counter-productive.. When she gave evidence to the Parliamentary Select Committee in 2013 on the Eurozone crisis she commented:

     

    “We are having countries where GDP is declining, like in Greece for the sixth year running, and loads of other countries. Of course, we are forecasting growth possibly to resume next year but perhaps not, so there will be more declines in some of the really big countries, including of course France, Italy and Spain.”

     

    That’s what impresses me. We are forecasting growth to resume next year, then IMMEDIATELY she adds “but perhaps not”. There’s a really useful forecast. A few years later and we know what that forecast was worth: less than the paper it was recorded on in Hansard.

     

    So what has Vicky got to tell us about the electorate and economics. Apparently the main issue is the deficit. “At the centre of the issue are policies aimed at eliminating the UK’s budget deficit, currently around five per cent of GDP.” That’s at the centre of the issue. That is that what the electorate genuinely feels strongly about.

     

    In the last 10 years total government debt (i.e. all government debt minus its liquid assets) has more than doubled from less than £500 bn in 2003 to approximately £1.2 trn in 2013. In the same period total debt has also more than doubled as a percentage of GDP from less than 40% to 90%. The reasons for the sudden increase in debt do not need to be considered by our learned Vicky. They are not relevant to her message.

     

    And her message is very straightforward. The politicians tell us we have to reduce the deficit. Therefore we have to reduce the deficit. Not very scientific, Vicky. Perhaps you could preface your conclusion with the phrase “economic theory tells us that …” and then we will definitely be convinced. Vicky is simply buying in to the right-wing cuts programme (euphemistically called “austerity” in the hope we will not realise what they are doing) which George Osborne and his Liberal cronies have been so enthusiastically espousing since the last general election.

     

    Then later in the same article she says: “But again the evidence would suggest that there is nothing sacrosanct about a balanced budget — and nothing sacrosanct about when to reach it, especially if interest rates for government borrowing remain low.” I am afraid all this economic theory and evidence is confusing me, Vicky. One minute we all have to knuckle down and put up with the cuts Osborne, Danny Alexander, Vince Cable, Ed Balls and Miliband unanimously agree we have to suffer. The next minute “the evidence” suggests we do not.

     

    Meanwhile we look at Greece and we see an increasing number of working class people attracted to the Syriza programme. Clearly there are economists with theories different from Vicky Pryce. The academic economists in Syriza, university trained and qualified, seem to think writing off half of Greece’s debt would be good economic policy. So too does the free-trade espousing Economist magazine.

     

    So stop parading your opinion as science, Vicky.

     

    Working people across Europe are not stupid. We know that ‘austerity’ means forcing  ordinary people to pay for the financial crisis in the financial sector that they did not create.

     

    It is time for working people across Europe to stand up and say the debts incurred by our capitalist leaders are not our debts. We repudiate them. Take over the banks, finance houses and insurance institutions in the name of the people, and put them under workers’ democratic control.

     

    Our assets should be used for our benefit, not for the protection of the wealth and privilege of the few.